Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
